Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849d539311dbf75f1cac3c550ebfd0fdaac4463caa9349e8caf930fe4851d819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Shelton, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,731 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Shelton | 1c | 3,852$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Shelton | 5c | 2,500$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Shelton | 1c | 2,249$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 581 | 39.9%232 W · 349 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Tien | 69c | 2,180$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.8 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Shelton | 6c | 1,600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Shelton | 3c | 1,560$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…f991backed Shelton | 34c | 1,468$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Shelton | 22c | 1,256$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.23 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…16fbbacked Tien | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Shelton | 31c | 1,053$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Tien | 67c | 782$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.31 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Shelton | 5c | 560$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Shelton | 36c | 290.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shelton | 30c | 272.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Shelton | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…2c6dbacked Shelton | 5c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +349%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tien | 66c | 245.31$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shelton | 21c | 229.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…68f0backed Shelton | 37c | 223$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Tien | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Shelton | 37c | 181.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Shelton | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 199 | 45.2%90 W · 109 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shelton | 31c | 145.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Tien | 69c | 145.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Shelton | 33c | 134$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tien | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Shelton | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Shelton | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shelton | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Shelton | 31c | 46.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Shelton | 31c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner TienLearner Tien won
- Ben Shelton vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs TienTien won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Tien: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.