Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x239b8fbd7d7efef7cc8bc73941f57534f9752f87725420e353f2ff69dea3290c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 13c | 384.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 182.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 128.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 107.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 106.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 105.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 99.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 55c | 90.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 61.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 60c | 61.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…185cbacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 51c | 59.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…dfb5backed Yes | 37c | 54.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 52.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 52c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 40.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 30.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…fdb6backed Yes | 43c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 49c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.