Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a44fac4d04e9c5e318beb50fc3ff323727118e2a73e95b80396e5734d97039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked No | 10c | 2,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 26c | 805.1$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.41 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 72c | 481.64$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 74c | 462.65$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No | 22c | 449.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…ffb5backed Yes | 28c | 319.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 223.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked Yes | 21c | 188.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 77c | 130.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 46c | 122.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 36c | 83.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 17c | 79.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…bd07backed Yes | 78c | 72.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed No | 26c | 62.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 76c | 44.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…6137backed Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef8…fd97backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…3b29backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…8970backed Yes | 67c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…da2cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-31?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.