Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffb68ad066eec65246df81e3c5b8f493beda913988827db379276de0db1c3ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes | 48c | 10,417$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 52c | 5,396$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.47 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 52c | 4,979$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.16 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…1eecbacked No | 30c | 1,694$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 53c | 1,302$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 29c | 1,203$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.05 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,147$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 71c | 1,070$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.73 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 47c | 943.4$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.83 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 40c | 833.55$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.12 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…606cbacked Yes | 70c | 813.41$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 767.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Yes | 80c | 692.75$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 48c | 629.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…ca28backed No | 24c | 615$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 54c | 499.97$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 45c | 422$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…3119backed Yes | 46c | 415.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 53c | 302.52$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 47c | 210.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 70c | 196$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 56c | 195.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Yes | 70c | 194.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 60c | 176$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 64c | 155.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed Yes | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 48c | 151.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 76c | 143.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 27c | 116.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 15c | 107.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 78c | 86.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e0…f941backed Yes | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…5ab8backed Yes | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed No | 29c | 67.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 57c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…343ebacked Yes | 46c | 56.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…29c7backed Yes | 47c | 49.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 49c | 45.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c49…a3cebacked Yes | 75c | 41.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…5b12backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Yes | 69c | 38.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 53c | 38.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…6bc4backed Yes | 75c | 32.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…2940backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…cc3abacked Yes | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 62c | 24.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-31?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.