Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6fdb79f665bebd8ba8b44cd66a96deaee4935da0edabd39c45aa8f100ca236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38a…ffb5backed Yes | 29c | 2,085$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 1,571$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 25c | 855.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 74c | 677.89$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 80c | 395.98$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 358$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 7c | 349.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 74c | 155.41$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 71c | 139.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…9afcbacked No | 74c | 129.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 116.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 27c | 85.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed No | 72c | 82.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 23c | 51.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…98f1backed No | 74c | 37.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 78c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.