Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23bbbb10eafc962368508c97f1818d35b8b8840b461203138736831c03a52bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 292.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 247.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 33c | 179$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 156$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 26c | 115.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 110.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 100.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 65c | 76.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 73.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 62.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 31c | 56.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 69c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.