Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4442c142741b7110dfa4b2ddc7fdd582946e1905fe8473273f0eb38842e329d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 221.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 41c | 201$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 40c | 121.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 206 | 44.2%91 W · 115 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 106.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 85.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 82.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 81.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 67.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 41c | 54.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…f9e2backed Yes | 40c | 50.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 64c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 39c | 32.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 41c | 31.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 61c | 28.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 27.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 60c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.