Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96422f30cf835a48e6d6df44b9d1eb4ee694de215f8e1e5f9f31a465b11a6808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 594.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 15c | 507.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 70c | 402.06$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +24.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked No | 73c | 370.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 29c | 304.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 55c | 193.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 6c | 186.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 77c | 173.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 53c | 143.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 70c | 140.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 125.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 19c | 122.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 19c | 115.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed No | 70c | 99.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 67c | 95.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 66c | 83.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 75.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 75c | 73.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 439 | 51%224 W · 215 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 60.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed Yes | 62c | 59.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 33c | 57.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 141 | 34%48 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…01e8backed No | 55c | 51.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 48.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 45.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 41c | 42.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 39c | 36.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 55c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 44c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…740fbacked No | 75c | 28.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed No | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked No | 75c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.