MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c696c09d4966c5c263d331e74f0b5465b29c9e0061a99a56967269df2b6344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Pirates, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cardinals | 56c | 3,100$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cardinals | 57c | 2,439$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.95 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 43c | 2,200$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 63c | 1,090$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.74 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 44c | 1,068$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cardinals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Cardinals | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pirates | 44c | 894.86$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.08 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Pirates | 4c | 781.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 35c | 701.47$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Pirates | 49c | 683.83$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.08 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Pirates | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 45c | 391$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 39c | 325.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 44c | 316$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Pirates | 44c | 267.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pirates | 45c | 206$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cardinals | 38c | 160.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 44c | 105.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Pirates | 66c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Pirates | 66c | 91.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pirates | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…33a2backed Cardinals | 55c | 71.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…4b53backed Pirates | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Pirates | 63c | 68.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cardinals | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 58c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cardinals | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…e479backed Cardinals | 55c | 49.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…71e3backed Pirates | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 37c | 39.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cardinals | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Pirates | 63c | 25.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Pirates | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pirates | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cardinals | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cardinals | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Pirates | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.