Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ddb58d2eb65822c0798ee0982d4be4dad9ec257c2527448ea2d0e531e5e08c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 853.17$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 294.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 30c | 237.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 21c | 233.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 41c | 218.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 164.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 19c | 155.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 75c | 133.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 27c | 119.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 117.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 98.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 96.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 87.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 63.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 56.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 53.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 42.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 39.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…9131backed Yes | 29c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 29c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 36.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 59c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked No | 79c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.