Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9632178147f5f2114e687360976b35d966ca7ea8b44ef7ab850b61902c3932d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 55c | 723.16$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 683.66$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 49c | 482.88$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 348.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 259.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 211.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 205.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 193.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 191.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 8c | 148.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 49c | 144.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 46c | 140.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 51c | 135.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 31c | 126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 70c | 107.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 102.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 94.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked No | 73c | 74.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 17c | 68.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 75c | 65.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 61.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 52c | 58.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 23c | 56.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 70c | 55.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 53.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 51.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 51.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 50.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 48c | 49.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 41.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 37c | 40.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 43c | 38.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 40c | 37.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 32.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 25.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 70c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 15.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…e1f3backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 69c | 14.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.