World Politics · resolved market
Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23f386d47d6f1fcc8946dab52e8706ed61af294c716faf443134f877fab093fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a4…709fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,419$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 1c | 7,521$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes | 2c | 7,400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,563$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,876$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 3c | 4,830$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…6769backed Yes | 25c | 4,035$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 3,145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…877dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,693$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 3c | 1,545$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c36…b162backed Yes | 9c | 1,175$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 56c | 1,068$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.85 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed Yes | 5c | 1,011$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 989.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…470ebacked Yes | 3c | 706.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…f2f9backed Yes | 3c | 678.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 9c | 653$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…6920backed Yes | 3c | 559.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…134bbacked Yes | 2c | 520$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 13c | 486$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 56c | 483.28$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.64 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…37d8backed Yes | 4c | 452.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…8933backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…76cabacked Yes | 9c | 322.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes | 9c | 210.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 191.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?this page
- Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?No won
- Will George Simion win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.