Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240278ae44b9d0f467a9a38a71c4a0334c4595c6e93a44d083bb69e5ebcf00c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucsaof Mertens, Bucsa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bucsa | 16c | 2,818$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.46 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Mertens | 42c | 2,489$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mertens | 47c | 2,155$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.75 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Mertens | 7c | 2,115$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Bucsa | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mertens | 62c | 1,228$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.3 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mertens | 71c | 1,201$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.1 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bucsa | 18c | 999.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.99 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Bucsa | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.99 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bucsa | 50c | 884$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.76 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mertens | 51c | 847.55$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.41 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Bucsa | 24c | 731.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.13 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Bucsa | 57c | 709$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Mertens | 78c | 600.74$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.12 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Bucsa | 16c | 600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bucsa | 18c | 561.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.17 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bucsa | 18c | 557.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.67 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Bucsa | 8c | 505.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.95 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bucsa | 54c | 442.7$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.7 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bucsa | 12c | 330$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Bucsa | 28c | 271.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Mertens | 75c | 265.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Bucsa | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bucsa | 43c | 233.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bucsa | 41c | 207.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 2,696 | 47.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L | +46.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bucsa | 20c | 132.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bucsa | 15c | 118.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bucsa | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 511 | 42.9%219 W · 292 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Bucsa | 26c | 60.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Mertens | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Mertens | 52c | 56.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mertens | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…f13abacked Mertens | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mertens | 72c | 14.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.