Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2419693e827103fcf8be47f8f5d6d31b5ca12cb35c1d23f977432fe2d1b5b86a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.05 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 495$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 73c | 345.82$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 256$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.65 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 39c | 215.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 49c | 199.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 153.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 136.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 74c | 113.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 98.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 18c | 96.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 93.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 74.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 66.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…5bf1backed Yes | 46c | 58.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 61c | 54.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 43.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a96…88bebacked No | 58c | 40.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 40.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 38.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 63c | 35.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed No | 57c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 51c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 61c | 20.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked Yes | 60c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.