Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Francesca Jones vs Xiyu Wang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241e5c0be81ff0d75d25f489b8a767c50c06a524b1242b0dfe99d2d0eef635be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wangof Jones, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wang | 63c | 4,661$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wang | 74c | 4,528$3,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.97 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Jones | 37c | 2,764$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.94 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wang | 72c | 2,389$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Jones | 40c | 1,914$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.45 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Jones | 23c | 1,579$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Jones | 31c | 1,109$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.99 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jones | 28c | 961$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Jones | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Jones | 29c | 531.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Jones | 37c | 484.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Jones | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Jones | 27c | 264.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wang | 78c | 212.16$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wang | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Wang | 74c | 104.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Wang | 74c | 72.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wang | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Jones | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Wang | 71c | 56.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Jones | 36c | 27.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wang | 63c | 16.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.