CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: FURIA vs. MIBR
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241ee0c43861ddc357496a0c2a56b38be15bdf96ef4c146aa9c270f0fe93367e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed MIBR | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.96 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 68c | 1,489$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.43 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked MIBR | 29c | 1,227$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.94 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA | 71c | 709.98$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…1544backed MIBR | 28c | 690$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MIBR | 8c | 634.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked FURIA | 70c | 585.42$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.85 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db4…241cbacked MIBR | 28c | 540$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked MIBR | 30c | 518.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed FURIA | 72c | 429.83$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked MIBR | 28c | 401.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…98c3backed MIBR | 29c | 352.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed FURIA | 73c | 350$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…15c4backed FURIA | 72c | 340$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…9b50backed FURIA | 72c | 305$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…7220backed FURIA | 72c | 285$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked FURIA | 72c | 285$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed FURIA | 74c | 267.76$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed FURIA | 70c | 234$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…4cbbbacked MIBR | 28c | 230$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…47bbbacked MIBR | 28c | 215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…cf10backed FURIA | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed MIBR | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…d3dfbacked MIBR | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…bb19backed FURIA | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…4495backed FURIA | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked FURIA | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…b6e9backed MIBR | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked FURIA | 75c | 153.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed MIBR | 25c | 153.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c1…e39cbacked FURIA | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked MIBR | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed MIBR | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked MIBR | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed FURIA | 72c | 68.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed FURIA | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked FURIA | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…6473backed FURIA | 71c | 43.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…39b1backed FURIA | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…90fdbacked FURIA | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.