Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2422458a05285fc11b82e53a3da25f10c862d25781f757c8679de673e2b53610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 280.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 18c | 278.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 180.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 21c | 167.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 79c | 158.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 125.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 33c | 122.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 117.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 91.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 17c | 66.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 78c | 43.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 79c | 37.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 73c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 79c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 78c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.