Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e705767def399a336515fa7f083a306c69620f6848bd18bf6bb5db2f3f5fa65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 1c | 1,137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 282.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 277.05$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 249.06$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 73c | 124$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 20c | 120.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 120.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 120.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 10c | 107.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 10c | 104.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 33c | 88.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 86.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 82.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 28c | 68.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 72c | 65.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 63.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 65c | 62.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 52.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 66c | 52.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 48.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…f41cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 40.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 68c | 35.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 31.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…5f00backed No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 70c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 76c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 66c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 16.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.