F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x242400480470c41f41a4824f8ed1f9b61313aa2cd5e652c4358ef72705122dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 27c | 961.81$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 25c | 834.8$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 67c | 221.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…7ceabacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed2…cc5dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 64c | 36.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.