F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x684ab7b26840563ffff5c08728f3d5c8c6ef9636bf29e23c326d048f3bbac84d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 43c | 2,158$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.67 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 58c | 1,350$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 65c | 1,245$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.76 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 42c | 685.55$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18e…d05fbacked Yes | 58c | 531.84$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.57 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…c19fbacked Yes | 33c | 497.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…7a22backed Yes | 51c | 475.96$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 41c | 389.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…3372backed Yes | 50c | 381.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked No | 58c | 326.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 55c | 296.57$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 46c | 287.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Yes | 45c | 256.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 67c | 199.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 35c | 192.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 42c | 170.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 57c | 153.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 29c | 140.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 65c | 138.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Yes | 73c | 137.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…9b98backed Yes | 33c | 121.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 50c | 121.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…22aabacked Yes | 66c | 101.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 31cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…32afbacked Yes | 48c | 83.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 45c | 76.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…e247backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…9338backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…7ceabacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 55c | 53.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…c8a1backed Yes | 49c | 51.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…eec9backed Yes | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…e468backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…7eeebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…8d8abacked Yes | 38c | 45.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cf…9a0fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed No | 49c | 41.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…c511backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ac…3e47backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a58…0b10backed Yes | 33c | 33.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…47e5backed Yes | 71c | 33.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4716backed No | 58c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…026dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…5241backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.