Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2424511e6ab592a874ac86ec7f9f45aae64e9aa2e1fad58680cc9312d519d53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e0e…98bfbacked No | 4c | 1,214$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7a1dbacked Yes | 45c | 790$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…e470backed No | 55c | 565$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…754fbacked No | 18c | 565$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 3c | 509.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…a692backed No | 18c | 415$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e35ebacked No | 55c | 415$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 404.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 29c | 399.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 44c | 335.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.09 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 38c | 250.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 63c | 158.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…0e77backed No | 25c | 87.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffba…1dbabacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 65.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 50.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…e35fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 59c | 29.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 19?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 20?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.