Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x242fc96bcf2e03c58ea1b04bae603546a721177154ff12d44efb2495697494fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,340 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 27c | 5,284$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.34 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed 1win | 45c | 2,525$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.62 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed 1win | 68c | 2,185$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.27 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked 1win | 78c | 2,102$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.64 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 53c | 1,550$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx | 19c | 1,027$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Lynx | 22c | 1,001$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.73 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Team Lynx | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Team Lynx | 35c | 632.56$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 45c | 570.73$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.83 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Team Lynx | 5c | 539.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed 1win | 74c | 538.72$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Team Lynx | 24c | 478.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed 1win | 57c | 466.4$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…3becbacked 1win | 38c | 451.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.45 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Team Lynx | 53c | 438.78$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Team Lynx | 26c | 420$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 50c | 408.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed 1win | 77c | 397.98$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Lynx | 27c | 391.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Team Lynx | 28c | 370.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9087…457bbacked 1win | 72c | 346.76$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Team Lynx | 30c | 335.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 327.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Team Lynx | 33c | 324.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Team Lynx | 65c | 314.82$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed Team Lynx | 40c | 289.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…e5d6backed Team Lynx | 58c | 272.17$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 55c | 266.93$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Team Lynx | 30c | 210.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Team Lynx | 29c | 208$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 57c | 196.54$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 1win | 68c | 180.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked 1win | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed 1win | 60c | 148.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked 1win | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked 1win | 60c | 140.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Lynx | 20c | 126.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Lynx | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Lynx | 23c | 109.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Team Lynx | 19c | 102.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Lynx | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 23c | 93.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed 1win | 65c | 88.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93de…f485backed 1win | 37c | 72.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed 1win | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 27c | 67.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Team Lynx | 51c | 66.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Team Lynx | 27c | 65.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked 1win | 76c | 65.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked 1win | 61c | 60.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed 1win | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked 1win | 58c | 58.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…a364backed Team Lynx | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…c802backed Team Lynx | 30c | 49.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9185…aee8backed Team Lynx | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked Team Lynx | 37c | 40.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed 1win | 43c | 34.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked 1win | 60c | 34.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed 1win | 49c | 32.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed 1win | 74c | 28.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87af…c8e1backed 1win | 58c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed 1win | 77c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.