NHL · resolved market
SHL: Faerjestad vs. Oerebro HK
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24390215578d713be469170ff85dcb70fb3f0a78dcec5f263688e4f4c49f3a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Faerjestadof Faerjestad, Oerebro HK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7567…0923backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 281$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 203$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Faerjestad | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oerebro HK | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Faerjestad | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Oerebro HK | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Oerebro HK | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Oerebro HK | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Faerjestad | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Oerebro HK | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Faerjestad | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Faerjestad | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Faerjestad | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Faerjestad | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Faerjestad | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Faerjestad | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Faerjestad | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Faerjestad | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…6696backed Faerjestad | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Faerjestad | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Faerjestad | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Faerjestad | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Faerjestad | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Faerjestad | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Faerjestad | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Faerjestad | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Faerjestad | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Faerjestad | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Faerjestad | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Faerjestad | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Faerjestad | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Faerjestad | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Faerjestad | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Faerjestad | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.