South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245ce41fd9a031b407a6b43536ef306ea4c993fc3ebce50bcc0b197eafb1fd56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 37c | 4,050$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.49 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 37c | 3,482$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.78 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 63c | 2,716$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 2,410$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 63c | 1,300$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.41 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 1,086$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 996.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 861.24$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.27 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…7c1ebacked No | 64c | 802.27$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 38c | 540.83$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 61c | 441.71$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 39c | 396.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 393.72$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 65c | 383.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 357.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 64c | 329.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 36c | 286.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 12c | 226.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked Yes | 36c | 148.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd659…ae8dbacked Yes | 37c | 143.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 38c | 143.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 140.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 64c | 104.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 66c | 95.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Yes | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 58c | 70.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…91e7backed Yes | 36c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 60c | 64.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…94f0backed Yes | 40c | 62.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2232backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3800…b007backed Yes | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +75%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…3a70backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c4…550fbacked Yes | 36c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…2de2backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…5d12backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…ea1dbacked Yes | 35c | 37.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…b8e3backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…5013backed No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked Yes | 36c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 61c | 29.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf7…d632backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 66cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…bb01backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked No | 64c | 22.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked No | 64c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 62c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked No | 64c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-04?this page
- Will Clube do Remo vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-02-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.