Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2475d2e6a5b2bc472c43142fc0ba8664941699ee47a2e661f5140102834514ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 1,665$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.29 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 13c | 715.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 21c | 545$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 415.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 18c | 263.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 244.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Yes | 19c | 223.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…4375backed Yes | 19c | 117.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 80c | 63.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 80c | 63.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 18c | 62.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 80c | 62.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…9691backed No | 79c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked No | 80c | 36.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 80c | 26.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 79c | 18.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.