Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7cbea384afa913b03a8145f6dd663f18891d9742b405615215fe804214e82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 63c | 2,610$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.83 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,081$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.78 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 28c | 1,537$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.64 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,535$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.16 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,284$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.43 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 28c | 854.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 28c | 432.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.31 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 28c | 385.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.71 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 38c | 310.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 50c | 250.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.22 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Yes | 28c | 192.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 70c | 150.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 149.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 41c | 135.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 133.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 72c | 119.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 27c | 93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 72c | 88.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 84.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 26c | 80.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 73c | 73.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 67.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 28c | 56.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 51.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 56c | 49.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 47.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 37c | 30.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 62c | 20.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 73c | 15.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 74c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 74c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 74c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.