Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f4cc5fcd531e1ff5dd1d6440ced2206880648970f4007fc3705ffb19f6b84a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes | 53c | 13,472$7,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,125.92 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed No | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.32 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 48c | 3,740$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.4 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked No | 45c | 1,835$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.33 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 1,183$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.01 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked No | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed No | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 49c | 974.2$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.84 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 61c | 787.36$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.42 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 46c | 658.95$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.83 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 656.31$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 54c | 415.06$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.13 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 52c | 403.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 28c | 385.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 378.57$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 52c | 355$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 317.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 267.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Yes | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x428c…c64fbacked Yes | 52c | 222$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 46c | 221.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed No | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 45c | 183.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 166.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed No | 45c | 163.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 65c | 162.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Yes | 45c | 156.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 51c | 152.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…02fcbacked No | 60c | 147.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 58c | 100.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 59c | 92.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 46c | 87.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 20c | 85.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…51acbacked Yes | 53c | 77.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 47c | 72.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 51c | 72.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 51c | 69.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 50c | 67.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 36c | 62.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…859fbacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 42c | 50.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Yes | 55c | 48.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 52c | 41.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 45c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 51c | 39.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…ce4abacked Yes | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 51c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 51c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Yes | 51c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 51c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed No | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 45c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 44c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 51c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.