Tennis · resolved market
Raphael Collignon vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x249091d059e228fc1646730ad023bddc87c9b3492517d3653c1f043479cd07f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 1,300$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 1,175$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.68 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 791.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.6 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 485.41$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 451.71$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 354.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 317.38$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 185.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 177.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 119.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 115.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…eb3abacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 102.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…672abacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 59.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 57.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 52.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 50.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 42.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 40.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 39.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Under 2.5 | 27c | 38.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…aafcbacked Over 2.5 | 58c | 37.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 27.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…dd7dbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678a…05ffbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under 2.5 | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raphael Collignon vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs CerundoloCerundolo won
- Set 2 Winner: Collignon vs CerundoloCollignon won
- Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
- Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel CerundoloRaphael Collignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.