Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18dfad44d4e3b396d5d08fae62873bac9d350ed21db2d27ea8666a9d565b478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Collignon, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Cerundolo | 67c | 6,451$4,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.27 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Collignon | 33c | 4,644$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.72 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Collignon | 32c | 4,478$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.25 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Cerundolo | 67c | 3,691$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.72 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Cerundolo | 66c | 3,010$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.27 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Cerundolo | 66c | 2,854$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.27 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d72ebacked Cerundolo | 70c | 2,114$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.57 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Collignon | 33c | 2,098$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Collignon | 34c | 1,797$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.92 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Collignon | 34c | 1,779$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Collignon | 34c | 901.51$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.51 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Collignon | 34c | 600.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Collignon | 34c | 600$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Collignon | 34c | 556$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Collignon | 33c | 525.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cerundolo | 66c | 418.88$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Collignon | 35c | 372$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…9779backed Cerundolo | 66c | 243.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Collignon | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Cerundolo | 64c | 155.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Collignon | 34c | 151.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Cerundolo | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Cerundolo | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Collignon | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Collignon | 36c | 103.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Cerundolo | 66c | 101.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Collignon | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Collignon | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Collignon | 35c | 88.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Cerundolo | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Collignon | 32c | 78.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Collignon | 34c | 72.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Collignon | 34c | 48.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Collignon | 35c | 47.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Cerundolo | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Cerundolo | 65c | 38.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Cerundolo | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…1d15backed Cerundolo | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 69 | 75.4%52 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Raphael Collignon vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs CerundoloCerundolo won
- Set 2 Winner: Collignon vs CerundoloCollignon won
- Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel CerundoloRaphael Collignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.