Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794cea4b5d94408e2ffde6896b9c1840a57f065625c93025c8ba87af80cfcd11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Collignon, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 2,834$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.48 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Collignon | 51c | 2,546$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.34 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Cerundolo | 43c | 521.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.67 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked Collignon | 56c | 460$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Cerundolo | 77c | 228$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Collignon | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Collignon | 57c | 136.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Collignon | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Collignon | 58c | 77.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 206 | 35.9%74 W · 132 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Collignon | 54c | 76.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Cerundolo | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Collignon | 14c | 75.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Cerundolo | 44c | 73.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Cerundolo | 77c | 68.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Collignon | 56c | 64.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cerundolo | 44c | 59.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Collignon | 27c | 47.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cerundolo | 42c | 46.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Collignon | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Collignon | 27c | 38.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Collignon | 55c | 37.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Collignon vs Cerundolothis page
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Collignon vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Raphael Collignon vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Collignon vs CerundoloCollignon won
- Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
- Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel CerundoloRaphael Collignon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.