Lol · resolved market
LoL: HMBLE vs Axolotl (BO1) - LIT Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24b6b7c3085d6ef7f28dc32089de3dc78daad71d01070a68870e2a8369e5f0e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HMBLEof HMBLE, Axolotl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Axolotl | 14c | 5,930$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.9 | 191 | 46.1%88 W · 103 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Axolotl | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 460 | 33.9%156 W · 304 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Axolotl | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 416 | 44.2%184 W · 232 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Axolotl | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 771 | 31.8%245 W · 526 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Axolotl | 14c | 1,415$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 487 | 42.3%206 W · 281 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Axolotl | 14c | 1,041$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 411 | 33.8%139 W · 272 L | -28.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Axolotl | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 541 | 29.9%162 W · 379 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Axolotl | 10c | 968.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Axolotl | 13c | 932$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Axolotl | 6c | 750$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 456 | 18.9%86 W · 370 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Axolotl | 13c | 637.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Axolotl | 14c | 514.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Axolotl | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,806 | 39.1%707 W · 1,099 L | -30.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Axolotl | 13c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 390 | 44.9%175 W · 215 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…e55abacked Axolotl | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Axolotl | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…a75cbacked Axolotl | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Axolotl | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…4574backed Axolotl | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Axolotl | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a40abacked Axolotl | 32c | 78.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…6646backed HMBLE | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.