Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24bf5e9f993b351bd4ac69125c77ea16e7a000f00b4ad90a6296135c0105b760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked Yes | 59c | 571.25$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 61c | 283.87$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.23 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 246.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 69c | 220.11$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 12c | 178.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.79 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 36c | 141.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 20c | 97.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 59c | 84.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 84.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 64c | 83.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 54.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 78c | 50.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…c715backed Yes | 75c | 42.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 64c | 37.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 37.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 31.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked No | 55c | 27.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 27.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 65c | 21.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 55c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 58c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.