Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f43124b45273d938bfaa27dbdf7bd838fbaed0079975c723db258bebb2d2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 204.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 201.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 173.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 166.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 160.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 154.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 108.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 100.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 23c | 94.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 20c | 87.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 24c | 84.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 79.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 21c | 64.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 20c | 61.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 24c | 46.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 46.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…f380backed No | 79c | 44.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 78c | 41.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 80c | 29.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 76c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.