Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424811881e7ef5c65436a5183b8112ef7bcb0d0a84f28f6e3d6b0a55e31855eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 65c | 396.48$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 66c | 324.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 71c | 261.09$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 244.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 208.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 178.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 46c | 174.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 133.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 127.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 78c | 112.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 107.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 43c | 98.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 69c | 97.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 54c | 97.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 74c | 97.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 33c | 95.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 94.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 65.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed No | 75c | 65.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 62.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 57.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 32c | 49.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked Yes | 69c | 49.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 48.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 73c | 48.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 55c | 46.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 42.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 75c | 42.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 38c | 41.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 65c | 38.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 36c | 38.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 34c | 36.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 36.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 33.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 33.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 31.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 68c | 31.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 68c | 27.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 44c | 27.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 54c | 26.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 61c | 26.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 62c | 25.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 24.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 61c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 58c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 64c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.