Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Mochizuki vs Quinn
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x252d8e2f1a54143d5564e8f28c599011cb05812f01ce12b1ab8502c98f61d946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mochizukiof Mochizuki, Quinn
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mochizuki | 41c | 473.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.25 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Quinn | 58c | 306.53$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.69 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mochizuki | 52c | 285.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Quinn | 58c | 216.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Quinn | 61c | 165.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mochizuki | 46c | 138.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Quinn | 46c | 108.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Quinn | 58c | 51.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mochizuki | 49c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Mochizuki vs Quinnthis page
- Mochizuki vs. Quinn: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs QuinnMochizuki won
- Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)Mochizuki won
- Set Handicap: Quinn (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)Mochizuki won
- Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ethan QuinnShintaro Mochizuki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.