Olympics · resolved market
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x253f46dbad5fce69998c0c10775d2b2ae7b3c9632c39767afebdab39df22b57a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 48c | 214.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…0df7backed Yes | 18c | 185.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 50c | 160$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 144.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 19c | 113$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…98a5backed Yes | 39c | 76.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…65f9backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 65c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…9e4fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…c610backed Yes | 42c | 35.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 75c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will China win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.