Olympics · resolved market
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f4860f7e686c96e2cd54c25d7ea1ea09c68d70ec6962339ca2c38af0641ee50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 26c | 430.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 30c | 270.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 65c | 229.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 38c | 175$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes | 55c | 145.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…1a82backed No | 74c | 135.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 127.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…33fbbacked Yes | 48c | 104.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…e7f9backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +287.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…7852backed Yes | 41c | 65.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 62.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 71c | 50.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 47.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…a6ecbacked Yes | 44c | 45.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…0df7backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…5dbcbacked Yes | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 56c | 38.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 48c | 35.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed No | 69c | 33.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…c610backed No | 61c | 32.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…2e58backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…aa41backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa8…a398backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will China win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.