Olympics · resolved market
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8e1a869b63c14d0dadd7edc98495ecbbbe42fb2563b05f57a76a86ce926bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,891$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…97debacked Yes | 31c | 1,855$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…03f3backed No | 69c | 751.57$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed No | 70c | 723$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 29c | 706.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 71c | 650$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 454.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 18c | 260.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Yes | 32c | 116.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 17c | 95.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 69c | 72.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…d051backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will China win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Mixed Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.