Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 139.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2541518cf66c63babb6e354e26cbe6b1a9b1444744f2b085668b87b6ca3ff5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 52c | 8,563$4,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,071.52 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,797$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 50c | 2,521$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.75 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 2,020$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.99 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,306$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.88 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Under | 50c | 995.22$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 45c | 713.25$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 44c | 630$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 46c | 624.53$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.3 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 51c | 583.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.71 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 392.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 45c | 312.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 48c | 149.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 46c | 125$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 103.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 83.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 51c | 74.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 46c | 53.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 44c | 51.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Under | 51c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 51c | 26.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 50c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 139.5this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting IrishDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 140.5Over won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.