TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 139.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b47…d615backed Over52c8,563$4,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,071.5274051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c3,797$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.9112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2537…bff9backed Over50c2,521$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.7544452.7%234 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c2,020$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.995,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c1,306$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.882,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Under50c995.22$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.611936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under45c713.25$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8889850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under44c630$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.274152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under46c624.53$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.384147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over51c583.09$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7134746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c392.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2778052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under45c312.27$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.526752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under47c198.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1838837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under48c149.56$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2885248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under46c125$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.593941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under45c103.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.474,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under46c83.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3612141.3%50 W · 71 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over51c74.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4315551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7850548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e8…ed04backed Under46c53.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.783348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Under44c51.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.688055%44 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Under43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.927048.1%130 W · 140 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Under51c27.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1635650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Over51c26.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0327350.5%138 W · 135 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Under50c23.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98952.8%47 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.