Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c23c7c97e365d7dbabfc72623222b043899a1fc7269ab945282926b1eac9611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 53c | 20,391$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800.33 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 11,009$5,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,823.8 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 3,143$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 1,719$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.02 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.82 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 26c | 1,387$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 1,037$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.1 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…cbc9backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 993.34$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils | 59c | 945.85$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.17 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Duke Blue Devils | 74c | 498.3$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 399.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 355.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 351.07$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.56 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 28c | 338.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 231.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 207$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 204.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 54c | 184.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 182.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils | 72c | 152.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 54c | 146.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 103.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…87fcbacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 75.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 73.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 61.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 52c | 59.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 74c | 41.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 37.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 31.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting IrishDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 139.5Over won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 140.5Over won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: O/U 142.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.