TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb2f…eca9backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish53c20,391$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,800.3311652.6%61 W · 55 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Duke Blue Devils47c11,009$5,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,823.844549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Duke Blue Devils47c3,143$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.565349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Duke Blue Devils47c1,719$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.0284147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.8227947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish26c1,387$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils47c1,037$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb0…cbc9backed Duke Blue Devils48c993.34$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.43580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils59c945.85$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.175,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Duke Blue Devils74c498.3$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.532,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Duke Blue Devils49c399.13$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.541,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Duke Blue Devils47c355.75$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5558652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Duke Blue Devils48c351.07$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5679448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish28c338.61$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1715551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbcd…7ab2backed Duke Blue Devils47c231.96$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.941973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+53.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed Duke Blue Devils47c210.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.784042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils47c207$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.712,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Duke Blue Devils47c204.2$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2363551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Duke Blue Devils47c198.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0824737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish54c184.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5741554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Duke Blue Devils49c182.07$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.859256.5%52 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils72c152.42$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.363,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish54c146.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.330853.2%164 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Duke Blue Devils47c105.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8914051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Duke Blue Devils48c103.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.694,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80df…87fcbacked Duke Blue Devils50c75.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.631952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Duke Blue Devils47c73.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1213050%65 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Duke Blue Devils48c61.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.946357.1%36 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Notre Dame Fighting Irish52c59.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9340849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Duke Blue Devils47c52.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.957542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Duke Blue Devils74c41.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.761,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Duke Blue Devils48c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.763,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Duke Blue Devils47c37.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1217551.4%90 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Duke Blue Devils47c31.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.777751.9%40 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Duke Blue Devils47c21.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.318844.7%84 W · 104 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.