Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Shelton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x254b2b670499fbf099aa90dc33dc9e8645baed0b0cd3ef93a11f7d141fe5b257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Shelton | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…c481backed Shelton | 8c | 7,432$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Shelton | 12c | 6,258$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.97 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…fab3backed Shelton | 6c | 4,930$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Shelton | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Shelton | 4c | 3,419$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Shelton | 7c | 3,232$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…644bbacked Shelton | 5c | 1,950$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Shelton | 3c | 1,110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Shelton | 5c | 1,036$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shelton | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Shelton | 8c | 877.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Shelton | 7c | 875$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Shelton | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Shelton | 7c | 794.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Shelton | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…a8fabacked Shelton | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Shelton | 9c | 567.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Shelton | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Shelton | 3c | 412$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Shelton | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Shelton | 6c | 353.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shelton | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Shelton | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a88…dfe1backed Shelton | 7c | 237.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked Shelton | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.