Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a4b41e46b09dbe05a27b2ff7abac00f75c75a5d8a87f732f2aceac5a46291c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 6c | 577.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 18c | 395.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 362.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed Yes | 4c | 319.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 19c | 258.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 7c | 210.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 22c | 208.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 6c | 207.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 206.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 193.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 184.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 174.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 13c | 157.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 156.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 17c | 150.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 145.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 8c | 128.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 11c | 117.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 104.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…5b5cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…bfe2backed Yes | 52c | 96.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 81.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 68.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 79c | 58.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…60bcbacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 45.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 50c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 29.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.