Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43c5eb6341e6e754881e793ac9b8538dc564c2823ecef2f6ea044d52a8de34f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 12c | 427.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 404.74$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 9c | 393.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 64c | 340.1$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 15c | 311.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.75 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 39c | 309.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 288.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 7c | 271.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 11c | 260$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 237.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 223.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 215.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 72c | 208.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 8c | 204.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 196.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 189.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…5b5cbacked Yes | 8c | 189.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 184.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 7c | 170.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 170.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 157.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 49c | 145.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 137$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 136.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 77c | 130.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 19c | 128.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 77c | 128.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 102.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 94.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 19c | 91.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 80c | 73.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 18c | 73.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 64.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 25c | 53.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 33c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 50.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 44.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 23c | 43.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 75c | 41.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 39.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 36.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…dfeabacked Yes | 49c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 27.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c1bebacked Yes | 75c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 71c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 14.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.