Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25cb9216d5ad5d23b34b4a26f8b0fbfcba2ed59a521449201a67d70ca77ef2ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 23c | 2,998$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.5 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 73c | 1,624$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.83 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 1,543$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.06 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 62c | 1,485$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.33 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,263$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.42 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 1,216$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 43c | 794.61$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.38 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 68c | 499.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 33c | 362.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Yes | 7c | 360$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…adc5backed No | 32c | 300.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 71c | 284.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 281.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 29c | 273.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 19c | 151.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 31c | 119$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 117$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 109.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 63c | 66.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 37c | 54.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 77c | 49.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 75c | 48.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Yes | 77c | 45.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…e755backed No | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 68c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 33.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 50c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nõmme Kalju FC win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.