Earnings · resolved market
Will Robinhood say "Billion" 10+ times during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25cdbe9088ba67103e0ecf3e0c37c0c71c586e279cd05a4d550e336c12291eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $365,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ac2…7b23backed Yes | 14c | 3,483$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd2…bcf5backed Yes | 15c | 1,548$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…5cd2backed Yes | 75c | 1,516$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…f97abacked Yes | 74c | 713$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1779…a40dbacked No | 8c | 614.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9903…09b6backed Yes | 74c | 391$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…2561backed No | 6c | 384.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 19c | 362.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 304.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…2643backed Yes | 77c | 301$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 212.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…0df7backed Yes | 75c | 196$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed No | 11c | 147.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked No | 10c | 125.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…ff10backed No | 72c | 107.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 101.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d31…8ae2backed No | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robinhood say "Billion" 10+ times during earnings call?this page
- Will Robinhood say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Robinhood say "Gold" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Robinhood say "Prediction" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Robinhood say "Silver" during earnings call?No won
- Will Robinhood say "Summit" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Robinhood say "Token" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.