Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e58ac688a6bfacb5a5a6f1bb0ae4c72badfd3ad3ad03fa6d612f910441db33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NSÍ Runavíkof FC Lugano, NSÍ Runavík
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed NSÍ Runavík | 69c | 2,834$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.06 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Lugano | 36c | 2,574$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.99 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Lugano | 49c | 1,670$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.3 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 632.91$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.9 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed FC Lugano | 49c | 407.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed FC Lugano | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked NSÍ Runavík | 35c | 333$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed NSÍ Runavík | 59c | 289.82$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NSÍ Runavík | 50c | 237.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NSÍ Runavík | 35c | 222$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Lugano | 48c | 221.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 142.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed FC Lugano | 49c | 117.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed NSÍ Runavík | 52c | 112.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked FC Lugano | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed FC Lugano | 26c | 61.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NSÍ Runavík | 50c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed FC Lugano | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…5e6fbacked NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 58.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Lugano | 49c | 53.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…f8b9backed NSÍ Runavík | 38c | 47.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed NSÍ Runavík | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed FC Lugano | 43c | 32.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked FC Lugano | 49c | 24.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed NSÍ Runavík | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)this page
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.