Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9aea4938935af62a9b299e5b556f9b54e63ebc4eba1dd3bd4730a6ad510885
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 2,005$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 1,954$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.67 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 1,862$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.49 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,832$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.78 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 8c | 742$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 75c | 366.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 323.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 53c | 300.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 7c | 298.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 9c | 207.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 131.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 74c | 99.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 70c | 87.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 77c | 77.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 76c | 75.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 74c | 56.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 69c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…0812backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…2c85backed Under | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 79c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)NSÍ Runavík won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.