Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a93cf978f919153d30806a92cda138ca6fb6eccd6b6dbee1d8aeccf02ed81f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 29c | 6,106$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.59 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,774$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.06 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 69c | 2,484$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.15 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,625$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 1,021$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 60c | 630.13$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.05 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 60c | 549.63$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.1 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 32c | 450$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…ac08backed No | 64c | 306.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54e…bdf1backed No | 64c | 306.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 24c | 278.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 263.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 73c | 231.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 73c | 148.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 74c | 128.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 71c | 124.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 62c | 111.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 31c | 98.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 72c | 97.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 71c | 59.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 71c | 52.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed No | 79c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 77c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 72c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 73c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: FC Lugano O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: NSÍ Runavík O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lugano vs. NSÍ Runavík: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)FC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-2.5)NSÍ Runavík won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.