South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e91a541521b501d73aaf914c6b8036145eaa5d077ec8ba96be43be4f8e50b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 11,769$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.38 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,075$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.01 | 247 | 66%163 W · 84 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 3c | 7,245$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.83 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 3c | 4,972$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.63 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 5c | 4,135$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.74 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Yes | 3c | 3,443$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 5c | 3,139$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 145 | 40%58 W · 87 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 3c | 2,565$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 7c | 2,073$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 1,951$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 5c | 850.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 3c | 623.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 5c | 615.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 4c | 595.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…05d7backed Yes | 5c | 562.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 4c | 537.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Yes | 5c | 501.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 6c | 412.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 6c | 391.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 7c | 377.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 6c | 314.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 6c | 301.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 5c | 245.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-16?this page
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.