Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2616217dfa5650d9adec2b3cd2ad016a1970007086966475fd44106babfb6357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 40,000$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,800 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 63c | 39,976$25,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,791.12 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,133$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,945$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.73 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f807backed Yes | 37c | 1,673$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…d55dbacked No | 63c | 1,670$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 37c | 873.13$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.12 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 63c | 479$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 62c | 358.4$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 350$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a9…caccbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 282.59$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Yes | 57c | 260$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 202.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…da80backed Yes | 38c | 152.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 57.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 62c | 48.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.